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a terrifying glimpse into what war with Kim Jong There is no such protective shield to defend the capital Seoul against the rain of artillery and rockets that could be fired by the North from the demilitarised zone.

In greater Seoul, which the North has threatened to turn into "a sea of fire" if it were ever attacked, there are an estimated 100,000 Americans living among the population of 25million people. The Trump factor If Donald Trump lost patience with the North's recalcitrance over its nuclear program and decided to launch a pre emptive strike against the regime of Kim Jong un, he would have to consider whether he wantedto see images of hundreds, maybe thousands of dead Americans on CNN on top of the tens of thousands of dead South Koreans. North Korea Crisis It would be a war unlike any seen in generations, indeed perhaps ever if it were to go nuclear, which is entirely possible since many of the top experts believe the North already has the ability to fit a miniaturised fission device onto a medium range missile. On paper, North Korea's military is the fourth largest in the world, and US Defence Secretary James Mattis has said that "if this goes to a military solution, it's going to be tragic on an unbelievable scale". If it came to that, Australia would likely be involved. Under the 1953 armistice, Australia would as a signatory be expected to support South Korea if it was invaded by the North, some experts say. Indeed the United Nations force based in Japan to support South Korea is currently pandora usa commanded by an RAAF officer. Australian Strategic Policy Institute head Peter Jennings said that because of the US alliance and Australia's close economic relationship with South Korea, "we've got a big stake in the fight whether we like it or not". For now, the ball is in the court of the US and its allies in the sense that the North is cheerfully moving ahead with its nuclear and missile testing, shifting the balance day by day and making the calculus more difficult for the international community. So what are the near term options for the US, South Korea and their allies, such as Japan? One that is most often suggested is some kind of surgical strike to take out the North's nuclear and missile facilities as well as its other most threatening military assets. The problem with this is that it could not be done quickly or cleanly. Many of the nuclear sites pandora charm bracelet beads and artillery and rocket batteries are dug into mountainsides and either hardened against attack or hidden. It would take days, probably weeks, and involve hundreds of strike aircraft and missiles such as Tomahawks fired from US ships in the Sea of Japan. Meanwhile the North would hit back with everything it had. "People think we can fly in there or shoot some cruise missiles from the Sea of Japan and cleanly take them out," Kelly said. "It's not going to be like that. You're going to have to bomb the hell out of North Korea. That's not a surgical strike, that's a war. The notorious "Mother of All Bombs" that was dropped on the Taliban recently, Kelly says, was actually a signal to North Korea a view shared by many experts. That's the kind pandora bracelet gift card of firepower you'd be talking about, he says. Euan Graham, who once served as Britain's charge d'affaires in Pyongyang and now heads the Lowy Institute's international security program, has travelled through the area and makes the same observation about the North's batteries of artillery along the demilitarised zone that are aimed at Seoul just 40 kilometres away. "You see a little tunnel open at the base of a hill. That would be extremely difficult to close down. They would also likely target US military bases in South Korea and Japan. The US and its allies could also consider a limited punitive strike against the Kim regime, a way of telling it to stop its nuclear program or it can expect more of the same something like what Trump did to the Syrian regime after its use of chemical weapons. But can a hermit dictatorship see the difference between a limited and an all out strike? The Kim dynasty has always been regarded as rational and occupied first and foremost with its own survival, though the current dictator is more reckless and provocative than his father or grandfather. But the regime is paranoid, experts agree. "An autocratic dictatorship like that is not socialised to trust or believe any kind of reassurances," said Daniel Pinkston, formerly with theInternational Crisis Group in Seoul and now at Troy University. "They're not going to believe we're committed to a limited operation They're as likely to see it as the first stage of regime change and respond accordingly. We'd need to be prepared to use more force in return so I don't see how you can credibly commit to a limited strike." The complex mechanism of deterrence and pre emption between the North and South is a hair trigger affair. Pulling the trigger first Late last year after seeing a string of nuclear tests by the North, Seoul unveiled a three pillar policy to counter the threat. It consists of a "kill chain" system to carry out a pre emptive strike against the nuclear facilities if the South is faced with an imminent threat, an air defence system to shoot down missiles and finally the "Korea massive punishment and retaliation plan" whose name rather speaks for itself.

Bennett says this pulls both sides towards a tendency for "pre emption of pre emption" jumping before pandora charms to buy online the other side does. The North meanwhile has an inbuilt incentive to escalate because its strengths are its heavy artillery and missiles, ultimately its nukes, whereas its conventional land forces are a case of quantity rather than quality and its air force is antiquated. The South meanwhile has the US 8th Army's 2nd Infantry Division made up of American and Korean troops including US special operations forces backed up quickly by Marines from Okinawa.


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